Japan
– Japan Bank for International Cooperation
Japan
– Nomura Holdings, Inc.
Japan
– Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Inc.
Japan
– The Norinchukin Bank
Japan
– Japan International Cooperation Agency
Japan
– Bank of Japan
Japan
– Mizuho Financial Group
Japan
– Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
Japan
– Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
Japan
– Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
Japan
– Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.
Japan
– The Canon Institute for Global Studies
Japan
– Development Bank of Japan Inc.
A net international investment position (NIIP) can be viewed as a nation’s balance sheet with the rest of the world at a specific point in time, in that it measures the gap between a nation’s stock of foreign assets and foreigner’s stock of that nation’s assets.
NIIP is an important barometer of a nation’s financial condition and creditworthiness.
A nation with a positive NIIP is a creditor nation, while a nation with a negative NIIP is a debtor nation.
Debt supercycles are very long in nature – on average about 60 years. The current supercycle began as World War II ended and much reconstruction was required. In the early stages of all debt supercycles, GDP and debt grow 1:1. That ratio declines as the supercycle matures and, towards the end of all debt supercycles, GDP only grows about $0.25 for every dollar of added debt. China and the US, the two economic superpowers of the world, are both there now.
As more and more debt is added to ensure continued GDP growth, more and more capital is deployed to service that debt, i.e. capital that ideally should be deployed productively is increasingly used to service existing debt, and that holds back productivity gains and economic growth. This is the most important reason why productivity growth declines towards then end of all debt supercycles.
BCA Research introduced the concept of the debt supercycle in the 1970s, describing how policy makers wouldn’t let financial imbalances be fully unwound during downturns. The firm declared the debt supercycle dead at the end of 2014, and said it was partly vindicated by household borrowing, relative to income, retreating and the lack of corporate capital spending, though companies did splash out on stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions.
Now the firm is declaring the final nail in the coffin. “The shock of the recession and destruction of wealth will leave a legacy of increased financial caution with households wanting to build precautionary savings and companies striving to repair damaged balance sheets,” writes Martin Barnes, chief economist at BCA, who also says it wouldn’t be surprising to see personal savings rise to the double-digit levels of the 1980s.
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